Pakistan’s economy has officially surpassed the $400 billion mark, representing a significant achievement in the country’s financial progress. Based on provisional data from the National Accounts Committee (NAC), the economy’s size reached Rs114.7 trillion — around $411 billion — during fiscal year 2025. This marks a 2.68% increase over the previous year, although it remains under the government’s initial 3.6% growth target.
Sohail Mohammed, CEO of Topline Securities, described the milestone as a “notable recovery” in light of persistent economic challenges. He noted that over the past five years, Pakistan’s nominal GDP has grown at a compound annual rate of 9.3%. However, he emphasized that achieving the $1 trillion GDP goal by 2035 will depend on major reforms, political consistency, and prudent economic oversight.
National accounts data show the economy expanded from Rs105.1 trillion in FY24 to Rs114.7 trillion in FY25. This corresponds to a rise in dollar terms from $372 billion to $411 billion. Quarterly GDP growth was also revised upward: 1.37% in Q1 and 1.53% in Q2, indicating slow but steady progress.
Despite the positive momentum, certain sectors remain under pressure. Industrial output declined by 1.14% in Q3, mainly due to reduced activity in mining, quarrying, and large-scale manufacturing. In contrast, the agriculture sector recorded a 1.18% increase despite weaker crop yields, while the services sector showed stronger signs of recovery.
To stimulate the economy, the State Bank of Pakistan lowered its policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%. This rate cut followed a temporary pause in March and was influenced by signs of easing inflation. Analysts believe this move could help boost demand and business activity in the months ahead.
Looking forward, Topline Securities projects full-year GDP growth to be between 2.5% and 3.0%. The IMF has also adjusted its forecast for Pakistan’s FY25 growth down to 2.6%. Meanwhile, the HBL Pakistan Manufacturing PMI slightly declined to 51.9 in April, reflecting a mild slowdown in manufacturing amid uncertain global trade conditions.
