Pakistan Economic 2024-25 Overview: National Survey Reveals Key Trends
Pakistan Economic 2024-25. Pakistan’s economy has officially surpassed the $410 billion mark for the first time, according to the National Economey Survey for fiscal year 2024–25 released on Monday.
The report shows that the industrial sector exceeded expectations, while both the agriculture and services sectors fell short of their growth targets. The overall GDP growth goal of 3.6% was not met, as the economy expanded by only 2.7% during the fiscal year.
The survey highlighted a notable decline in inflation, which dropped to just 5%, significantly under the target of 12%. Meanwhile, indirect tax revenues reached Rs8,393 billion, surpassing the goal of Rs7,799 billion.
The industrial sector outperformed its target of 4.4%, achieving a growth rate of 4.8%. The country’s tax-to-GDP ratio also improved, rising from 6% to 8%. Total revenue grew by 36.7%, reaching Rs13,367 billion.
However, agriculture lagged behind, recording only 0.6% growth against the projected 2%. Major crop output declined by 13.5%, far worse than the anticipated 4.5% decrease.
The economic survey serves as a precursor to Tuesday’s federal budget presentation amid rising inflation, high debt levels, and ongoing talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Sources confirm that the government will unveil a Rs17,600 billion budget. Revenue is estimated at Rs19,400 billion, with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) assigned a tax collection target of Rs14,130 billion.
Debt and Budget Deficit
Debt servicing will consume Rs6,200 billion, highlighting Pakistan’s ongoing financial strain. Despite this burden, the government has kept the budget deficit target unchanged, aiming for fiscal discipline.
Government Relief Measures
To ease inflationary pressure, the government plans a 10% salary increase for public sector employees and a pension raise of 5% to 7.5% for retired workers.
Increases in Key Sectors
Defense spending is expected to rise by 18% due to inflation and regional threats. Key federal development allocations include:
- Rs13.58 billion for education
- Rs14.3 billion for healthcare
- Rs16.22 billion for the digital economy and IT development
These allocations signal a shift toward modernization and youth employment.
What Lies Ahead
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb will outline the full budget and economic priorities in parliament on Tuesday, June 10. Speaker Sardar Ayaz Sadiq has finalized the schedule for the budget session, detailing when discussions and voting will occur.
Key Dates:
- June 10: Budget presentation
- June 13–21: General debate
- June 23–26: Discussion and voting on grants, motions, and the Finance Bill
- June 27: Final discussions and votes on supplementary grants
Changes to the schedule will only be made with the speaker’s approval.
Missed Targets and Mixed Performance
While the economy showed improvement over the previous year, several targets remained unmet. The GDP growth rate hit only 2.7% compared to the 3.6% target. Annual per capita income was Rs509,174—short of the Rs543,968 goal.
The survey recorded a significant increase in indirect taxes and total revenue. However, agriculture continued to underperform, with major crop output falling sharply:
- Cotton: ↓ 30.7%
- Maize: ↓ 15.4%
- Sugarcane: ↓ 3.9%
- Rice: ↓ 1.4%
- Wheat: ↓ 8.9%
Minor crops slightly exceeded targets with 4.8% growth, driven by increases in vegetables, fruits, and spices.
Sector-wise Breakdown
- Industrial Sector: Rose by 4.8%, boosted by textiles, garments, autos, and petroleum.
- Services Sector: Reached only 2.9% growth, below the 4.1% target.
- Construction: Outperformed with 6.6% growth.
- Electricity, Gas, Water Supply: Surged by 28.9% vs. a 2.5% target.
- Health Sector: Grew 3.7%, above the 3.2% goal.
- Education: Achieved 4.4% growth, surpassing its 3.5% target.
- Large-Scale Manufacturing: Contracted by 1.5%.
- Small-Scale Industry: Expanded by 8.8%, exceeding the 8.2% target.
Private sector borrowing jumped from Rs294 billion to Rs870 billion, reflecting growing market activity.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb is set to formally release the economic survey today at 2:30 PM, laying the foundation for Pakistan’s economic direction in the coming fiscal year.
